Tuesday, June 05, 2007

Conflict in ECB Over Role of Money Supply

Interesting Bloomberg News report about a supposed internal split within the ECB over the significance of money supply growth.

I would like to add two observations. First, contrary to the impression of the report, money supply has in practical policy been nearly ignored. Even though money supply has always been above the supposed 4.5% target, the ECB have been hesitant to raise rates or been holding them constant or even lowering them.

Second, while it is true that the link between money supply growth and consumer price inflation have been weak, this doesn't mean that money is irrelevant. Instead it means that money supply growth have to an increasing extent been causing asset price inflation rather than consumer price inflation.


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