Friday, November 30, 2007

The Sucker Rally

I am too busy now to produce a detailed analysis of the latest U.S. economic data. Suffice to say that all of them except the Chicago PMI, but inluding the Beige book, durable goods orders, corporate profits, new and existing home sales, construction spending, consumer confidence, personal income and spending and jobless claim support my prediction that this quarter will experience negative real growth at least on a terms of trade adjusted basis and probably on a volume basis too.

Meanwhile, I recommend Nouriel Roubini's interesting analysis of the stock rally of the last few days, which he calls "a sucker rally".


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