Wednesday, April 30, 2008

Why McCain Will Likely Win

Obama's shall we say controversial reverend Jeremiah Wright is in the news again. The main loser from this is clearly Obama. However, the main beneficiary won't be Hillary Clinton. The reason for this is that Obama's core supporters, blacks and left-wing intellectual whites, either share Wright's beliefs or at the very least finds them excusable because they believe that blacks are so oppressed that somehow this excuses any seemingly bad behavior. Indeed, some even find the criticism against Wright to be racist. Because of that and because most primaries are already over, Hillary won't benefit much from this, and because she is so much behind it is unlikely to enable her to win.

By contrast, in a general election, where blacks and left-wing intellectual whites are only a small proportion of the voters, this factor, together with similar controversies such as Obama's "bitter"-remarks, will drive much of the key swing-voters of working class whites into voting for McCain instead of Obama.

The Democrats, by foolishly choosing a candidate whose background was largely unknown and who had no experience in handling the kind of attacks that any Presidential candidate will face, will therefore like do what I never thought they could do: lose to the Republicans despite the unpopular Iraq war and despite the rapidly deteriorating economy. If the Democratic superdelegates had any sense, they would choose Hillary over Obama. But they seem unlikely to do so. That is however probably good for reasons
that I explained before


Anonymous Anonymous said...

I am confident that the so called superdelegates in the end will understand that they better chose Hilary Clinton than a 20-year starting-run needing Obama.
IF it took Obama 20 years to realise what Pastor Wright stood for, then God only knows how many years he needs to understand enough to take hard decisions under code Red.

For more information please read my own blog:

9:48 AM  
Blogger Allen said...

I think the real problem for the democrats is that in not having winner take all primaries it's kept things too close. If you want to ensure you have a candidate who can win big states, winner takes all is the route to go.

The other issue they have is if the super delegates go for Hillary instead of Obama, they risk alienating a lot of people in their core constituency. And as we know, the way you win is by getting butts in the polling booths voting for you on election day.

12:12 AM  

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