Summary Of August U.S. Employment Report

Bearish elements: 84K in payroll losses, despite continued increases in imputed jobs through the fraudulent so-called "Birth/Death Model". Plus downward revisions of previous numbers of 60K. Continued decline in aggregate hours worked, particularly in manufacturing (hinting a significant decline in industrial production). 342K in job losses according to the household survey, causing the unemployment rate to soar from 5.7% to 6.1%. 12 month change in payroll employment now is -413K; 12 month change in household survey employment is -653K.

Bullish elements: None. Or actually, there is one thing that comes close. Namely the 0.4% increase in average hourly earnings, but this likely reflects to a large extent workers demanding compensation for inflation as well as the increase in the minimum wage. Still, with monthly all-items inflation likely decelerating sharply in August due to a decline in energy costs, this means that real average hourly earnings likely rose after several months of negative numbers.