Friday, February 27, 2009

S&P 500 Back To December 1996 Levels

The Obama stock market crash continues, with the S&P 500 reaching 735, the lowest since December 1996 (or more specifically December 19, 1996).

Bulls points to how valuation levels (based on 10-year earnings) are the lowest since 1986, but they are still a lot higher (almost twice as high) than in the cyclical low of 1982.

It will probably not fall to as low levels as in 1982, considering the far lower interest rates, and there is a good chance of some form of temporary stock rally soon, but given how deep this slump is and given the negative long-term outlook for earnings, stocks have probably not yet reached their cyclical low.


Blogger newson said...

hmm, the dow-theory sell signal given on feb 20 would suggest this move down has got plenty of vigour left. maybe the 1982 low will be tested yet.

11:37 AM  

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