Did Capital Goods Orders Really Rise?
Associated Press reports that core capital goods orders rose 1.5% in March compared to February. But in reality, they were in fact lower than the previously reported number for February.
The initially reported core capital goods order for February was $52.47 billion. The now reported number for March is $51.57 billion. The alleged 1.5% increase only happened because the February number was revised down to $50.78 billion. Given the quite consistent pattern in recent months for the initially reported number to be revised down, it seems likely that the $51.57 billion figure for March will similarly be revised down.
The initially reported core capital goods order for February was $52.47 billion. The now reported number for March is $51.57 billion. The alleged 1.5% increase only happened because the February number was revised down to $50.78 billion. Given the quite consistent pattern in recent months for the initially reported number to be revised down, it seems likely that the $51.57 billion figure for March will similarly be revised down.
1 Comments:
Of course, they will probably report the April number as being up when the March number is revised down (without bothering to mention that the March number was actually down from February).
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