Friday, April 24, 2009

Did Capital Goods Orders Really Rise?

Associated Press reports that core capital goods orders rose 1.5% in March compared to February. But in reality, they were in fact lower than the previously reported number for February.

The initially reported core capital goods order for February was $52.47 billion. The now reported number for March is $51.57 billion. The alleged 1.5% increase only happened because the February number was revised down to $50.78 billion. Given the quite consistent pattern in recent months for the initially reported number to be revised down, it seems likely that the $51.57 billion figure for March will similarly be revised down.