Tuesday, June 23, 2009

W-Shaped Recovery?

Nouriel Roubini thinks that the recovery will be W-shaped, and that the autumn of 2009 therefore, like the autumns of 2007 and 2008 will be associated with negative surprises. I too think that is likely as we are now experiencing the negative after effects of the previously very high money supply growth in the form of higher inflationary expectations and commodity prices, while the current pace of money supply growth has decelerated sharply. Such a combination is usually associated with downturns.

It should however be noted that it is in one way misleading to talk of a "W"-cycle since there actually never were any actual recovery (at least not in America-or Europe or Japan for that matter), it was only a deceleration in the pace of contraction.


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