Wednesday, September 09, 2009

German Exports Recover Strongly

German exports rose a seasonally- and calender adjusted 2.3% in July, following a 0.2% gain in May and a 6.1% gain in June, for a cumulative 3 month gain of 8.8%. As a result, the 12 month drop in exports has dropped from 28.8% to 18.7%. It appears to be mainly to countries outside the EU (meaning presumably mainly China) that exports increase.

As imports rose a more moderate 3.9% over the latest 3 months, net exports will likely give a large contribution to German third quarter growth.

Worth noting is also that German exports have now dropped less in terms of euros than Swedish exports have dropped in terms of SEK (22.6%). While the drop in Swedish exports would have probably been even larger without the weak SEK, this fact could indicate that it has provided a smaller boost than most people think.


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