U.S. Activity Index At A Recessionary Level

The Chicago Fed national activity index fell to -1.08, its weakest level since June. The 3 month moving average also weakened, to -0.91.

According to the Chicago Fed, a 3 month moving average above -0.70 indicated the end of a recession. And while it did briefly rise slightly above that level in September (-0.67), it is now again at a recessionary level.