Reasons For A Bearish Outlook

The chart below (HT Stephen Spruiell) illustrates why we can't expect a recovery anywhere near as strong as the one we saw in 1983-84. There are a few factual errors (inflation was not 10% and the budget was not moving towards a surplus in 1982. And I do not believe that the savings rate is rising or that it would be bearish if it did), but most points are correct and the few errors have little or no significance.