Thursday, January 06, 2011

A Perspective On How Deep The Crisis Was

November 2010 German factory orders came in a lot stronger than expected, rising 5.2% from the previous month and 20.6% compared to November 2009 after adjusting for calender and seasonal effects.

Compared to the cyclical low in February 2009, factory orders is up by a full 45.5%. Yet because February 2009 factory orders were 37.8% lower than the cyclical high reaced in November 2007, November 2010 factory orders were still 9.5% lower than during the cyclical peak exactly 3 years earlier.