Tuesday, May 31, 2011

Statistical Notes Monday May 31

-Economic news from the United States continues to be bearish, as the Chicago PMI, consumer confidence and house prices. These reports and most other reports suggest that far from acceleratin, growth has decelerated in the first quarter.

-Unlike in Greece and Portugal, the current account deficit in Spain rose somewhat, from €15.9 billion in the first quarter of last year, to €17.7 billion in thethe first quarter this year.

-Sweden's current account surplus rose, from SEK 54.6 billion the in Q1 2010 to SEK 71.1 billion the first quarter this year. This is equivalent to about 8% of GDP. Meanwhile, GDP growth slowed somewhat, but at 6.4% it is still the third highest in the EU, after Estonia and Lithuania.

-Estonia continues to have strong numbers, as retail sales increased 9% and industrial production increased by 31.8%. The strong retail sales numbers could however to some extent be the result of the fact that Easter was in April rather than March this year.

-Hong Kong had even more impressive retail sales growth, up 27.7% in nominal terms and 21.9% in real terms.

-Unemployment fell in Germany in May,to 6.1%, the lowest level since reunification. Employment is up by more than 2% in the latest year. In April, Germany had the fourth lowest unemployment rate in the EU, after Austria, Holland and Luxembuorg.

-Unemployment in Israel fell too, to a new low of 6% in the first quarter, compared to 6.5% in the previous quarter. This decline was in part due to a drop in the participation rate, but the employment rate also rose, from 53.9% to 54%. Combined with Israel's 2% population growth rate, this suggests an increase in employment at an annualized rate of nearly 3%. Part-time employment fell while full time employment rose at an annualized rate pf 6%.


Anonymous Anonymous said...

Significant export growth in Estonia (and also Lithuania and Latvia) reflects (among other things) forthcoming since 1.07.2011 rise of customs duties on cars in Belarus.
Together with strong inflationary expectations in Belarus it predetermines significant rise of cars (not only cars) import in Belarus and a lot of imported goods were (re)exported from Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia.

So partly rise of Baltic export reflects temporal factor that would not playing role since 3Q2011.

7:26 AM  

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