Wednesday, September 14, 2011

Statistical Notes Wednesday September 14

-Britain's economy continues to be stagflationary, as consumer price inflation rose to 4.5% in August while industrial production in July fell compared to both June 2011 and July 2010. Meanwhile, the British trade deficit was unchanged.

Meanwhile, the British employment rate fell in May to July to 70.5%, down by 0.2% compared to the previous quarter and by 0.3 percentage points compared to a year earlier, while unemployment rose. The nominal rate of wage increases rose to 2.8%, but with inflation at 4.5% that still means that real wages are falling. Also, in August the number of people receiving unemployment benefuts continued to rise.

-Producer prices in the United States were unchanged compared to the previous month, but compared to a year earlier they were up 6.5%.

Meanwhile, nominal retail sales in August were unchanged compared to the previous month but up 7.2% compared to a year earlier. With inflation at around 3.5%, real retail sales are likely up also around 3.5%.

-Im contrast to many other bullish signs, employment fell slightly in Canada in August compared to July while unemployment rose. However compared to a year earlier the picture is brighter with employment up and unemployment down.

-Contradicting the bearish signals from manufacturing surveys, the Swedish statistics authority reported increases in both industrial production and factory orders. Meanwhile, Swedish consumer price inflation was unchanged at 1.6% (the EU harmonized index).

-Also contradicting manufacturing surveys, euro area industrial production rose in July by 1% after falling by 0.8% in June.

-Estonia's foreign trade continued to grow rapidly, with exports up 34% and imports up 38% compared to a year earlier. Although this growth rate is slower than previously this year, this slowdown is largely the result of base effects.


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