Friday, October 07, 2011

Strong U.S. September Jobs Report

Contrary to previous months this year, the September jobs report was unequivocally strong. While most analysts tend to focus only on the payroll job number (which rose a higher than expected 103,000), other elements were in fact even stronger.

-First of all, the payroll number for previous months were upwardly revised by a total of 99,000.

-Secondly, like the previous month, but unlike the months before that, the household survey number was even stronger, showing a gain of 398,000. As a result, the employment to population ratio rose to 58.3% from 58.2%.

-Thirdly, average hourly earnings rose 0.2% and average weekly earnings rose 0.5% in nominal terms, though that just reflects a reversal of the previous months drop in both cases, meaning that in real terms September real wages are likely lower than in July.

This report clearly contradicts the "double dip" scenario.

BTW, the United States' northern neighbor Canada had even stronger job growth in September.


Blogger traumerei said...

Are you not expecting a double dip scenario and regard this report as an outlier?

7:41 PM  
Blogger HelloGummy said...

45.000 of those jobs comes from Verizon employees coming back from a strike. You should check your facts better :). These job statistics are fake from start.

7:55 PM  
Blogger stefankarlsson said...

Traumerei, a new recession is likely, but not this year, where the most likely scenario is a continuation of the near stagnant recovery. However, you're right in the sense that this report was likely an outlier that exaggerated the strength of the economy.

Hellogummy, anyone who considers all of the facts that I stated should realize that the Verizon issue makes little difference.

8:49 PM  

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