Tuesday, February 25, 2014

Ukraine Crisis Isn't Over

So now the so-called protestors have overthrown democratically elected President Yanukovich in what is in effect a coup. It is unclear what will happen, and how Russia and Yanukovich and his supporters will act, but this is almost certainly not the end of it.

Indeed, how could it be the end? Some people argue that protestors were motivated by anger over corruption and abuse of power from Yanukovich. But while Yanukovich is no doubt corrupt and some protestors may indeed have been motivated by anger over that fact, the opposition movement led by Yulia Tymoschenko is just as corrupt as Yanukovich, so if they prevail, that won't mean less corruption and abuse of power.

No, what this conflict is really about is that today's Ukraine is an artificial state created by Soviet commissars for the purpose of being a Soviet republic, not an independent state. It united areas that has always been Ukrainian or part of Poland, Hungary or Slovakia, and who now wants to distance itself from Russia and integrate with the EU. with historically Russian areas that have strong bonds (cultural, linguistic and trade-) to Russia. Here is an overview of the situation.

The bluer, Russian, areas not coincidentally coincide with the areas that voted for Yanukovich in the latest Presidential election in Ukraine, while the Ukrainian areas are the same that voted forTymoschenko.

The only sustainable, peaceful solution is for Ukraine to be divided just like Czechoslovakia was in 1993. Preserving Ukraine in its current form will only mean continued conflict.


Blogger Allen said...

Could we see another quasi-independent state come out of this much like Russia's Transnistria that's been carved out of Moldova?

6:27 PM  
Blogger stefankarlsson said...

Yes, that is a possibility.

9:41 AM  

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