Friday, June 06, 2008

About Employment Report

Today's employment report was in many aspects a virtual copy of previous reports, with moderate declines in payroll employment, erratic swings in household survey employment and unemployment -this month employment fell sharply and unemployment rose sharply, the previous month the opposite happened-, many jobs created in the government sector and an increasing number of imputed jobs from the fraudulent "birth-death" model, so there is really little to say about these things that weren't said in my commentary of previous months reports.

What can be said however that is new is that the report was weaker than some of the moderately bullish numbers in the previous week, and that this really takes any Fed rate hikes off the table, which is bearish for the dollar, especially considering the increased likelihood of rate hikes from the ECB and some other central banks.


Anonymous newson said...

when you use "fraudulent" to describe the bd model, isn't that a little rich? i mean, providing that the parameters remain the same over time (so it's flaws are also foreseeable), i cannot see any deliberate misleading.

after all, the bd model gave rise to the "jobless recovery" that bush's opponents used to great effect in his first term. the bd moded is slow to show job growth coming out of recession, and slow to mark job losses going into recession. so it's really about lags, not spin!

thanks for your opinion on the saville piece, i await further comment on retail mmfs.

6:37 AM  

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