Wednesday, July 13, 2011

Statistical Notes Wednesday July 13

-The British consumer price inflation rate fell from 4.5% to 4.2%, while nominal earnings growth rose to 2.3%. That however still means a decline of nearly 2% in real earnings while employment in the 3 months to May was flat compared to the previous 3 month period. Meanwhile, unemployment claims rose again in June, suggesting that employment may have fallen that month.

The U.K. trade deficit rose again in May, from £3.1 billion to £4.1 billion.

-The U.S. trade deficit also increased in May, to $50.2 billion from $43.6 billion, raising the April-May average to the same monthly average as in the first quarter. Net exports might still make an apparent contribution to growth despite a flat or slightly higher deficit, because the increase in imports largely reflected an increase in import prices that was higher than the increase in export prices.

-The consumer price inflation rate excluding interest payments in Sweden fell from 1.7% to 1.5% in June. This further weakens the case for further interest rate increases by the Riksbank, that was already non-existent to begin with given that money supply growth has fallen below zero.

-Estonia saw an increase in exports by 53%, Latvia saw an increase in exports by 39% and Lithuania saw an increase in exports by 42% in May. In Estonia and Latvia the increase in imports was smaller than the increase in exports, while it was larger in Lithuania.

-GDP grew 9.5% in China in the second quarter, below the first quarter increase but still relatively high and above most forecasts.

-Employment in South Korea rose 1.9% in June this year compared to the same month the previous year, and as a result the employment rate rose to a new high of 60.3% and the unemployment rate fell to 3.3%. It should be noted that since people older than 65 is included in the working age population, a 60.3% employment rate is a lot more impressive than it would have been in America or Europe where people older than 65 are generally excluded.


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