Tuesday, November 01, 2011

Statistical Notes Tuesday November 1

-British quarterly growth rose according to preliminary estimates from 0.1% in the second quarter to 0.5% (2% at an annualized rate) in the third quarter. However, much of this increase was probably due to temporary factors in the second quarter like the royal wedding and yearly growth was only 0.5%.

Meanwhile, the British manufacturing PMI fell to a new low of 47.4 in October, down from 50.8 in September, suggesting that fourth quarter growth will probably be non-existent or perhaps even negative.

-Monthly GDP in Canada rose by 0.3% in August, following increases of 0.4% in July and 0.2% in June.

-The U.S. manufacturing survey also dropped but by less, from 51.6 to 50.8. September construction spending rose by 0.2%, but the level for the previous month was downwardly revised by 1.7%, meaning that September construction spending was actually 1.5% below the previously reported August level.

-The Swedish manufacturing PMI rose by contrast, but is at 49.8 still slightly below the 50 threshold for expansion.

-Spain's current account deficit fell in August to €1.45 billion from €2.7 billion a year earlier. The decline in the entire January to August period was however more moderate, falling to €30.4 billion from €34.8 billion a year earlier.

-Italy's current account deficit also fell in August, but by less, from €5.95 billion last year to €5.4 billion this year. Also, unlike in Spain, the yearly change is negative.

-Retail sales in Hong Kong increased in September by 24.1% in nominal terms and 15.2% in real terms. That is a slower rate of increase than in previous months, but still faster than just about everywhere else.


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